The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a pivotal journey to the US capital to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial in-person encounter for the two leaders after an extended period of rising strains and sharp rhetoric.
Agenda for Discussion
Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are expected to be high on the agenda when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.
A History of Strained Relations
Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a January US military operation, Petro has subsequently said he believes there is a "real threat" of military action targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has earlier commented that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".
Tuesday's summit comes after an extended period of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has often condemned repeated US attacks on alleged narco-vessels in the regional waters, as well as the White House's border policies.
"His stance shifted," Trump was quoted as saying prior to the Washington talks.
Points of Contention
On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's government of not doing enough to halt the flow of narcotics toward the United States, and has vowed to extend military actions to land targets across the area.
But, the hostility appeared to subside after a "cordial" phone call between the two leaders, which a Colombian official later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".
Mediating Role
According to insiders, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I believe in negotiation and I thought our ties were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."
Border Security and the Guerrilla Group
Ahead of Tuesday's visit, officials from Bogotá stated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian worries over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.
A significant portion of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates drug trafficking, racketeering, smuggling, and illegal mining in border states and allegedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.
From the US perspective, tackling the challenge of the ELN will be vital to guaranteeing safety for US firms involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts note that the ELN has the potential to disrupt economic ambitions by attacking foreign investors and employees, as it has in the past attempted in Colombia.
Drug War Collaboration
An equally pressing matter for the two presidents will be the struggle against drug trafficking from Colombia, the global biggest source of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a halt on information exchange with US authorities following comments from Washington.
The US has, conversely, formally listed Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on Colombian officials, encompassing the leader and members of his family.
"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a regional security expert. "The threat to cut off Colombian cooperation could also weaken all enforcement efforts."
Potential Outcomes
But even with multiple areas for cooperation, the possibility for a confrontation exists. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," observed a ex-official. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avert Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."
But for Petro, even a difficult meeting could be advantageous. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could influence the political future of his preferred successor.
"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable situation," noted a regional expert. "If it goes well takes the air out of opposition arguments... If it doesn't, he's defending national sovereignty. He could use that in his favor."
