A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
