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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But the current race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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